10 Way-Too-Early Oscars 2026 Best Picture Contenders 12 Months Before The Ceremony

The 2025 awards season is over, and that means it’s time for some way-too-early predictions for the Oscars 2026 Best Picture contenders roughly a full year before the ceremony happens. Anora won Best Picture at the Oscars very recently, winning five of the six categories in which it was nominated overall. This came after Sean Baker’s movie was a constant performer throughout the awards season, starting at the Cannes Film Festival 2024. However, the movie was not a definitive predicted Best Picture nominee before that. It further proves how much the Oscars landscape can change during the year.

But as one Oscars race comes to a close, another begins. The 98th Academy Awards are roughly one year away, even if the official ceremony date is unknown. It’s fair to say that none of the movies already released in theaters in 2025 will be contending for Oscars. Instead, looking ahead to the Oscars 2026 landscape requires plenty of speculation about what titles will be great and have the necessary studio and Hollywood support to be in the mix. While plenty of movies could get nominated, these 10 movies are well-positioned as early 2026 Oscar Best Picture contenders.

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10

Deliver Me From Nowhere

20th Century

A year after Bob Dylan’s biopic A Complete Unknown was in the Best Picture mix, a Bruce Spingsteen biopic could be next. Deliver Me From Nowhere comes from 20th Century Studios and director Scott Cooper. It features The Bear‘s Jeremy Allen White in the lead role, playing the iconic musician. Although the film does not have an official release date, 20th Century Studios has confirmed that it will be out sometime in 2025, making it eligible for the 2026 Oscars.

Scott Cooper has never directed a movie to a Best Picture nomination, but Deliver Me From Nowhere has all the makings of an Oscar contender on paper. 20th Century Studios is sure to give the film a huge push later on and could be a contender in Best Director, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor for Jeremy Strong, and some below-the-line categories like Best Sound. As long as Deliver Me From Nowhere lives up to expectations and does Bruce Springsteen’s life justice, it should have a good chance of getting a Best Picture nomination.

9

Wicked: For Good

Universal

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Wicked: For Good

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Drama

Fantasy

Musical

Release Date

November 26, 2025

Director

Jon M. Chu

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  Cynthia Erivo

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  Jonathan Bailey

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  Ethan Slater

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Wicked: For Good is seemingly in a good spot to earn a Best Picture nomination at the 2026 Oscars. The first Wicked received one of the coveted ten nomination spots in 2025 after an incredibly strong performance, receiving 10 nominations overall. The sequel brings back all the key components of the first film and has a strong chance of being equally as well-received. If Wicked: For Good is a similarly well-rounded crowd-pleaser and box office hit, it will be surprising to see the Academy overlook it in Best Picture.

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Although Wicked only won two Oscars in Best Production Design and Best Costume Design, the sequel could fare much better. This could be the film that gets Jon M. Chu a Best Director Oscar nomination, while Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande will chase Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress wins. Furthermore, Wicked: For Good is already predicted to be nominated in Best Original Song as the sequel adds two new songs, one for Elphaba and one for Glinda. If it’s as strong of a below-the-line contender as the first, the sequel should be in the biggest category too.

8

After The Hunt

Amazon MGM

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After the Hunt

Thriller

Drama

Director

Luca Guadagnino

Writers

Nora Garrett

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  Julia Roberts

  Alma Olsson

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  Ayo Edebiri

  Maggie Price

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  Andrew Garfield

  Henrik Gibson

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  Michael Stuhlbarg

  Frederik Olsson

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Luca Guadagnino’s next movie, After the Hunt, is a strong contender to get a Best Picture nomination in 2026. Even though Challengers and Queer both failed to get any Oscars love, After the Hunt is arguably one of the buzziest titles coming this year. It stars Julia Roberts, Andrew Garfield, and Ayo Edebiri, and word around Hollywood is that After the Hunt has one of the best scripts in recent years. The combination of Guadagnino’s direction, its starpower, and great script should put the psychological thriller in the Best Picture mix.

Luca Guadagnino has only had one movie, Call Me By Your Name, earn a Best Picture nomination

Luca Guadagnino has only had one movie, Call Me By Your Name, earn a Best Picture nomination to this point. But with After the Hunt a potential contender in Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, Best Actress, Best Actor or Best Supporting Actor – depending on how they classify Garfield’s role, and more, the movie would have a strong Best Picture nominee profile. Amazon MGM already has the film positioned strongly with an October 2025 release, and it should hit festivals before then to increase buzz.

7

The Life Of Chuck

Neon

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The Life of Chuck

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Drama

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Sci-Fi

8/10

9.8/10

Release Date

September 6, 2024

Runtime

110 Minutes

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  David Dastmalchian

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  Karen Gillan

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The Life of Chuck is a rare case of a film possibly in the Oscars 2026 mix that people have already seen. This is due to the movie debuting at the Toronto International Film Festival last year, where it won TIFF’s People’s Choice Award. That’s notable considering the last 12 TIFF winners have received Best Picture nominations. However, Neon held off on adding the film to the 2025 Oscars landscape in favor of a 2025 release so it can possibly shake up the 2026 awards season.

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The Life of Chuck is an adaptation of Stephen King’s book directed by Mike Flanagan and starring Tom Hiddleston. That decision positions the film as one of Neon’s best opportunities to get a title in next year’s Best Picture race. Since Neon is fresh off the Best Picture win with Anora and has had films nominated in four of the last six years, The Life of Chuck‘s chances increase. That is unless Neon puts its chips behind something like Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value instead.

6

Marty Supreme

A24

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Marty Supreme

Biography

Drama

Sports

Release Date

December 25, 2025

Director

Josh Safdie

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  Timothée Chalamet

  Uncredited

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  Gwyneth Paltrow

  Marty Reisman

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  Tyler the Creator

• 

  Odess A’zion

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Timothée Chalamet starred in two Best Picture nominees in 2025, and there’s a good chance he’s the headliner of another nominee in 2026. His next movie is Marty Supreme, a sports biopic directed by Josh Safdie (Good Time, Uncut Gems). The movie has a late December release date and distribution through A24, which has a strong history of being in Best Picture; both factors should help its case and position Marty Supreme to be a major contender. Chalamet could finally win Best Actor for the movie too.

There is a possibility that Marty Supreme falls out of the race depending on how the rest of A24’s 2025 movies shake out. Benny Safdie’s The Smashing Machine starring Dwayne Johnson, Spike Lee and Denzel Washington’s Highest 2 Lowest, Celine Song’s Materialists, David Lowery’s Mother Mary, Ari Aster’s Eddington, and the Zendaya and Robert Pattinson film The Drama could become bigger contenders for the studio that demand its focus. But with Chalamet’s track record, Marty Supreme should not be ignored.

5

Avatar: Fire and Ash

20th Century/Disney

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Avatar: Fire and Ash

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Sci-Fi

Adventure

Action

Release Date

December 19, 2025

Director

James Cameron

Cast

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  Zoe Saldana

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  Sigourney Weaver

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  Sam Worthington

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  Stephen Lang

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James Cameron should be in the Best Picture mix once more in 2026. The first Avatar was part of the 2010 Oscars lineup, and Avatar: The Way of Water also earned a Best Picture nomination in 2023. It’s expected that a new James Cameron movie will be in the Oscars’ biggest category at this point, as his last three movies have done so, starting with Titanic. There’s no reason to doubt that Avatar: Fire and Ash won’t at least be technically impressive enough to put the franchise in the Best Picture race once again.

Movie	Oscar Nominations	Oscar Wins
Avatar	9, including Best Picture	3: Best Art Direction, Best Cinematography, Best Visual Effects
Avatar: The Way of Water	4, including Best Picture	1: Best Visual Effects

The real question for Avatar: Fire and Ash is what type of Oscar contender it will be. The first movie had nine nominations, including one for James Cameron in Best Director. However, the sequel only had four nominations. Avatar: Fire and Ash will need to impress voters even more if its going to be a real contender to possibly with Best Picture.

4

Hamnet

Focus Features

Fresh off Conclave‘s loss, Focus Features has arguably one of the strongest contenders for the Oscars 2026 Best Picture race in Hamnet. The movie is directed by Chloé Zhao and tells the story of William Shakespeare and his wife after the death of their son. Hamnet stars Paul Mescal and Jessie Buckley, two stars with some Oscars history in their own right. Considering this is Zhao’s first movie after Nomadland won Best Picture, there’s every expectation that her new movie will also receive similarly high praise and accolades.

Whereas Nomadland was a very small and personal drama largely built around Frances McDormand’s performance, Hamnet could potentially be a much broader Oscars contender. Zhao could again be in the Best Director mix, as Mescal and Buckley may receive their second nominations in Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress, respectively. If everything goes right, Joe Alwyn could even earn a Best Supporting Actor nomination. Below-the-line nominations in costume and production design are also feasible to build up its awards pedigree.

3

Frankenstein

Netflix

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Drama

Horror

Sci-Fi

Release Date

2025

Director

Guillermo del Toro

Cast

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  Oscar Isaac

  Victor Frankenstein

• 

  Jacob Elordi

  The Monster

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  Christoph Waltz

  Dr. Pretorius

• 

  Felix Kammerer

  William

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Guillermo del Toro takes on the iconic tale of Frankenstein and his monster in 2025, and with Netflix’s support, Frankenstein holds a good chance of getting a Best Picture nomination. Del Toro is already a favorite within Hollywood, as The Shape of Water won Best Picture, Nightmare Alley got a Best Picture nomination, and his Pinnochio won Best Animated Feature. A cast featuring Oscar Isaac, Jacob Elordi, Mia Goth, and Christoph Waltz also provides a path for acting nominations, while del Toro’s movies frequently earn below-the-line respect. It’s got the makings of a Best Picture nominee.

The question for Frankenstein is whether the movie will be Netflix’s top contender in the category. The streamer is still searching for its first Best Picture win after Emilia Pérez fell short amid its many controversies. The Joel Edgerton and Felicity Jones starring Train Dreams (from the team behind Sing Sing), Noah Baumbach’s Jay Kelly, and Edward Berger’s Conclave follow-up The Ballad of a Small Prayer are other movies that Netflix could throw its support behind instead.

2

The Roses

Searchlight

Searchlight Pictures is always in the mix for Best Picture, as its had at least one nominated movie in each of the last eight years. Barring some festival acquisitions or another surprise release this year, The Roses looks like the best shot at continuing that streak. The movie comes from director Jay Roach (Bombshell) and stars Benedict Cumberbatch, Olivia Colman, Kate McKinnon, Andy Samberg, and more, as it follows a husband and wife whose perfect life begins to unravel.

The Roses may ultimately be a stronger contender in Best Actor and Best Actress

There is a chance that The Roses may ultimately be a stronger contender in Best Actor and Best Actress than it is in Best Picture. But, Bombshell‘s Best Picture nomination a few years ago proves that voters can give Jay Roach’s films some recognition when they are deserving. It’s up to The Roses to prove that it can be in this mix with a festival debut and winning over audiences early on.

1

One Battle After Another

Warner Bros.

Any previous titles could end up in the Best Picture race, but none are even close to being locks for a nomination. One Battle After Another is different. This is the new movie from Paul Thomas Anderson and Leonardo DiCaprio that Warner Bros. has fully backed with a $100M+ budget. Not only does it have PTA and DiCaprio, but the cast also includes Regina Hall, Sean Penn, Alana Haim, Teyana Taylor, Benicio Del Toro, and Wood Harris. It’s getting a full IMAX release in August to kick off its likely awards run if a festival debut doesn’t come first.

Paul Thomas Anderson and Leonardo DiCaprio have 13 Best Picture nominated movies between them

The confidence in One Battle After Another being in the Oscars Best Picture mix next year largely come from Paul Thomas Anderson’s track record. He already has three movies that earned Best Picture nominations: There Will Be Blood in 2008, Phantom Thread in 2018, and Licorice Pizza in 2022. It also helps that Leonardo DiCaprio has a great history in the category, with ten of his movies getting nominations and two of those winning Best Picture. It would be a surprise if the Oscars 2026 overlook this anticipated pairing in Best Picture.

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Category: Entertainment